Arima Model for Gold Price Prediction

Abstract

Despite increases in 2017 and 2018, the price of gold has been stagnant globally since 2013. The price volatility of gold will significantly influence how people, businesses, and nations choose to invest. This study focuses on the World Gold Council's data for gold prices from Jan 2018 to Feb 2023, and it uses the ARIMA model to forecast and analyze the daily Indian rupee (per ounce) gold price for the month of Feb 2023. The accuracy of models is also estimated in this study using AC, PAC, and BIC. Results from experiments show that ARIMA (4,1,4) is the best model for predicting the Indian price of gold (National Currency Unit per troy ounce). For consumers to comprehend the effectiveness of gold prices and make wise investment decisions, the estimate outcomes of the ARIMA Model are essential.